Match Info

LEBANON: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 6

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday


	Tripoli		Al-Safa Beyrut

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.25	1.93
	3.33	3.93	1.92
	3.44	3.36	1.95	Watch
	3.5	3.45	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.31)	3.5 ↑ (3.15)	1.93 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tripoli
26.7%

Draw
26.1%

Al-Safa Beyrut
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

28.8%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

29.7%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tripoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tripoli's form might have worsened.

Al-Safa Beyrut has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Safa Beyrut's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tripoli than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tripoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Safa Beyrut than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Safa Beyrut, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Premier League (Losers stage: ) and 7 in the zone Premier League (Losers stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tripoli won 2.

Tripoli is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Al-Safa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Tripoli have a series of home games.

Recently Al-Safa have a series of guest games.

Al-Safa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Tripoli won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Tripoli won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tripoli SC
Lebanese Premier League
22.09.23	Tripoli - Racing Beirut	2:2 ✺
26.08.23	Tripoli - Al-Ansar Beirut	1:2 ✺
20.08.23	Tripoli - Shabab Al-Ghazieh	1:1 ✺
13.08.23	Tripoli - Shabab Al Sahel	0:0 ✺
05.08.23	Tripoli - Bourj	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLTTL
- Al-Safa Beyrut
Lebanese Premier League
23.09.23	Al-Ansar Beirut - Al-Safa Beyrut	2:2 ✺
25.08.23	Shabab Al Sahel - Al-Safa Beyrut	1:1 ✺
19.08.23	Hekmeh - Al-Safa Beyrut	1:3 ✺
12.08.23	Al Ahli Nabatiya - Al-Safa Beyrut	1:1 ✺
05.08.23	Nejmeh - Al-Safa Beyrut	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Lebanese Premier League
19.02.23	Tripoli - Al-Safa Beyrut	1:1
08.01.23	Al-Safa Beyrut - Tripoli	1:2
11.12.22	Al-Safa Beyrut - Tripoli	0:0
19.04.22	Tripoli - Al-Safa Beyrut	1:2
20.03.22	Al-Safa Beyrut - Tripoli	0:2
18.10.21	Al-Safa Beyrut - Tripoli	1:2
10.03.19	Tripoli - Al-Safa Beyrut	0:1

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