Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 5

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday


	Tropical Coriano		Pontedera

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.00	3.50
	1.92	3.15	3.55
	1.83	3.21	3.72
	1.89	3.35	3.76	Watch
	1.79	3.1	3.6
	1.91	3.18	3.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.1)	3.17 ↑ (3.12)	3.64 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tropical Coriano
47.3%

Draw
28.2%

Pontedera
24.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

25.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tropical Coriano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tropical Coriano than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tropical Coriano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pontedera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tropical Coriano - Pontedera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 🟥,
20', 0 - 1, Ortolini R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 0 - 2, Marie-Sainte A. ⚽,
67', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 14th and 18th in the Relegation).

In recent outings, Tropical Coriano has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Pontedera is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Tropical Coriano is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Tropical Coriano	6	1	2	3	4:6	-2	5
18	Pontedera	7	1	0	6	5:18	-13	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Tropical Coriano
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.10.26	Tropical Coriano - Crema	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Oltrepo - Tropical Coriano	0:1 ✺
16.09.26	Tropical Coriano - Lentigione	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Cittadella Vis Modena - Tropical Coriano	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Tropical Coriano - Varese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TWLLT
- US Pontedera
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.10.26	Lentigione - Pontedera	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Pontedera - Varese	0:3 ✺
16.09.26	Pro Sesto - Pontedera	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Pontedera - Pro Patria	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Castellanzese - Pontedera	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Tropical Coriano
Italian Serie D - Group D
21.10.26	Solbiatese - Tropical Coriano	✺

Tropical Coriano - Pontedera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide