Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday


	Varea		Arnedo

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.05	3.2
	2.11	3.13	3.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.31)	3.09 ↑ (3.05)	3.25 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varea
42.8%

Draw
29.3%

Arnedo
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

29.8%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30.2%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Arnedo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varea than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arnedo than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Varea - Arnedo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 0 - 1, ⚽,
61', 1 - 1, ⚽,
75', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varea won 3.

Varea is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arnedo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Varea may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Varea won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:6. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Varea won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 2.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Varea
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
12.10.25	Varea - La Calzada	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Yagüe - Varea	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Peña Balsamaiso - Varea	2:3 ✺
19.09.25	Varea - Autol	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Varea - San Sebastian Reyes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWWWL
- CD Arnedo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
18.10.25	Arnedo - Peña Balsamaiso	5:0 ✺
12.10.25	Autol - Arnedo	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Arnedo - Berceo	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - Arnedo	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Pradejón - Arnedo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
10.09.23	Varea - Arnedo	2:0
24.04.22	Varea - Arnedo	2:1
18.12.21	Arnedo - Varea	2:2
28.02.21	Varea - Arnedo	1:1
14.04.19	Varea - Arnedo	3:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
01.10.17	Varea - Arnedo	4:2

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