Match Info

Date: 14 May 2021, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Ventspils		Valmiera

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.6	1.7
	4.5	3.7	1.61
	4.28	3.52	1.64
	4.5	3.6	1.67
	4.5	3.84	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.42 ↑ (3.36)	3.65 ↑ (3.34)	1.66 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ventspils
20.5%

Draw
24.8%

Valmiera
54.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.3%

27.4%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

21.1%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ventspils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ventspils's form might have worsened.

Valmiera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valmiera's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ventspils than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valmiera than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.1%	3.2%	80.6%

Ventspils - Valmiera Predictions

Users Predictions: Valmiera will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification)).

Ventspils is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Valmiera is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Valmiera have a series of home games.

Valmiera will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Ventspils won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 25-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Ventspils won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Ventspils
Latvian Virsliga
10.05.21	Rīgas FS - Ventspils	1:0 ✺
05.05.21	Riga - Ventspils	3:0 ✺
01.05.21	Ventspils - Metta	5:2 ✺
18.04.21	Ventspils - Liepāja	0:1 ✺
11.04.21	Ventspils - BFC Daugavpils	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLL
- Valmiera FK
Latvian Virsliga
09.05.21	Valmiera - Noah Jūrmala	2:0 ✺
04.05.21	Valmiera - Rīgas FS	0:1 ✺
30.04.21	Valmiera - Riga	2:1 ✺
24.04.21	Metta - Valmiera	1:1 ✺
19.04.21	Valmiera - Spartaks	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
04.04.21	Valmiera - Ventspils	1:0
03.10.20	Ventspils - Valmiera	1:1
03.08.20	Valmiera - Ventspils	3:0
25.06.20	Ventspils - Valmiera	2:2
29.09.19	Valmiera - Ventspils	2:0
21.07.19	Valmiera - Ventspils	2:2
18.05.19	Ventspils - Valmiera	2:2

Ventspils - Valmiera