Match Info

BRAZIL: Mineiro - Round 6

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes (Bonfim)

Referee: Candido Alves R. (Bra)


	Villa Nova AC		Itabirito

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	3.1	2.85
	2.37	3	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.15	2.84
	2.4	3.14	2.83	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.9
	2.43	3.14	2.84
	2.37	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.03)	3.06 ↓ (3.23)	2.84 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villa Nova AC
38%

Draw
29.8%

Itabirito
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

28.5%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

28%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa Nova AC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Villa Nova AC's form might have worsened.

Itabirito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Itabirito's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa Nova AC than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Villa Nova AC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabirito than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Itabirito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Villa Nova AC - Itabirito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Geaze (G) 2. Yago Rocha 3. Davison Dutra 4. Caique Baiano 6. Yan Ferreira 20. Joao Torres 7. Gleisinho 10. Norberto 8. Rodrigo Gaia 11. Paulinho 9. Vinicius Tanque	1. Rodolfo Castro (G) 13. Cesinha 4. Luanderson 25. Jamerson J. 15. Bryan Garcia (C) 5. Gustavo Crecci 16. Serginho 8. David Lucas 14. Leo Reis 19. Ramon 9. Luan
Substitutes
18. Anderson Paulista 16. Cesar 23. Douglas 26. Ewerton Pascoa 19. Fernando Neto 5. Joao Denoni 15. Jorginho 14. Lucas Formiga 21. Luis Felipe 12. Victor Lube (G) 13. Vitinho	11. Alessandro Vinicius 28. Alexsander 3. Alison 26. Artur 10. Bruno Menezes 21. Daniel Fagundes 23. George (G) 22. Hulk 7. Jo 70. Lissandro 27. Ruan Levine 18. Victor Ferreira
Coaches
Souza E. C.	Martins Junior C. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
25', Paulinho ↓, Vitinho ↑,
32', 0 - 1, Leo Reis ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, David Lucas ⚽, Serginho (A),
41', Caique Baiano 🟨,
42', 0 - 3, Jamerson J. ⚽, Leo Reis (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yan Ferreira ↓, Fernando Neto ↑,
46', Serginho ↓, Bruno Menezes ↑,
54', David Lucas ↓, Victor Ferreira ↑,
60', 0 - 4, Ramon ⚽,
68', Norberto ↓, Anderson Paulista ↑,
68', Luan ↓, Jo ↑,
68', Leo Reis ↓, Ruan Levine ↑,
69', Joao Torres ↓, Jorginho ↑,
82', Yago Rocha ↓, Robinho ↑,
90+6', 1 - 4, Rodrigo Gaia (Pen),

Preview

The competitors look crappy now.

Villa Nova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Villa Nova won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villa Nova AC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.02.25	Villa Nova AC - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
29.01.25	Athletic Club - Villa Nova AC	6:1 ✺
26.01.25	América Mineiro - Villa Nova AC	2:0 ✺
22.01.25	Villa Nova AC - Uberlândia	0:1 ✺
19.01.25	Democrata GV - Villa Nova AC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLLW
- Itabirito FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
02.02.25	Itabirito - Aymorés	0:0 ✺
30.01.25	Itabirito - Cruzeiro	1:4 ✺
26.01.25	Uberlândia - Itabirito	1:1 ✺
22.01.25	Tombense - Itabirito	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Itabirito - Betim	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
28.01.24	Itabirito - Villa Nova AC	0:2

Villa Nova AC - Itabirito: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide