Match Info

Date: 27 February 2022, Sunday


	Vélez		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.85	2.85
	2.7	2.8	2.6
	2.6	2.85	2.65
	2.72	2.75	3
	2.55	2.97	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.37)	2.84 ↓ (3.1)	2.79 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez
35.2%

Draw
32.1%

Ceuta
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.3%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

20.5%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vélez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ceuta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vélez - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Group 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Recent matches Vélez is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ceuta is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ceuta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Vélez won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
20.02.22	Panadería Pulido - Vélez	2:0 ✺
16.02.22	Mérida AD - Vélez	2:0 ✺
13.02.22	Vélez - Las Palmas B	1:0 ✺
02.02.22	Cacereño - Vélez	2:0 ✺
30.01.22	Vélez - Villanovense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWLW
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
20.02.22	Ceuta - Montijo	0:0 ✺
13.02.22	Ceuta - Panadería Pulido	3:1 ✺
06.02.22	Las Palmas B - Ceuta	0:2 ✺
30.01.22	Ceuta - Mérida AD	0:1 ✺
23.01.22	Villanovense - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
10.10.21	Ceuta - Vélez	1:0

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