Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Newport, grass - Semi-finals

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Adrian Mannarino		Antoine Ghibaudo

	1	2
	1.14	5.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.12	5.2	Watch
	1.13	6.42
			Watch
			Watch
	1.12	5.5	Watch
	1.84	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.84)	4.89 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adrian Mannarino
79.4%

Antoine Ghibaudo
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adrian Mannarino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+29.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Adrian Mannarino's performance.

Antoine Ghibaudo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-29.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Antoine Ghibaudo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adrian Mannarino than the current prediction. (-30.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Adrian Mannarino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Antoine Ghibaudo than the current prediction. (+30.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Antoine Ghibaudo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Adrian Mannarino - Antoine Ghibaudo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5 Games - Ghibaudo (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Ghibaudo (2.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ghibaudo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mannarino is ranked ATP: 123. Ghibaudo is ranked ATP: 601.

Mannarino is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ghibaudo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Mannarino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Antoine Ghibaudo - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.86%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adrian Mannarino
ATP Challenger
11.07.25	Bernard Tomic - Adrian Mannarino	1:2 ✺
11.07.25	Tyler Zink - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
08.07.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Adrian Mannarino	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
04.07.25	Andrey Rublev - Adrian Mannarino	3:0 ✺
02.07.25	Adrian Mannarino - Valentin Royer	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW
- Antoine Ghibaudo
ATP Challenger
11.07.25	Antoine Ghibaudo - James Watt	2:0 ✺
11.07.25	Mitchell Krueger - Antoine Ghibaudo	1:2 ✺
08.07.25	Patrick Kypson - Antoine Ghibaudo	0:2 ✺
07.07.25	Antoine Ghibaudo - Reese Stalder	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Antoine Ghibaudo - Finn Reynolds	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWWWW

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