Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Metepec - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday


	Alafia Ayeni		Amit Vales

	1	2
			Watch
	1.5	2.35	Watch
	1.49	2.6
	1.56	2.27	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.56	2.27	Watch
	1.55	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.45)	2.34 ↓ (2.65)

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alafia Ayeni
60.4%

Amit Vales
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alafia Ayeni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Amit Vales has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alafia Ayeni than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alafia Ayeni, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amit Vales than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Amit Vales, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alafia Ayeni - Amit Vales Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ayeni is ranked ATP: 658. Vales is ranked ATP: 856.

Ayeni is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vales's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ayeni may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ayeni could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Alafia Ayeni - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 64.63%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alafia Ayeni
ATP Challenger
15.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Patricio Betancourt	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
08.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Braden Shick	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Stefan Cooper	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Axel Nefve	2:0 ✺
05.02.26	Alafia Ayeni - Lucca Pinto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWWW
- Amit Vales
ATP Challenger
15.02.26	Bautista De La Pena - Amit Vales	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
07.02.26	Amit Vales - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Amit Vales - Edas Butvilas	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.01.26	Amit Vales - Keshav Chopra	0:2 ✺
29.01.26	Arjun Rathi - Amit Vales	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLLW

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