Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cary - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday


	Alex Rybakov		Hiroki Moriya

	1	2
			Watch
	1.80	1.87
	1.79	1.91
	1.82	1.97
	1.78	1.93	Watch
	1.80	1.95
	1.78	1.90	Watch
	1.81	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.65)	1.92 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Rybakov
51.6%

Hiroki Moriya
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Rybakov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Hiroki Moriya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Rybakov than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Alex Rybakov - Hiroki Moriya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rybakov is ranked ATP: 393. Moriya is ranked ATP: 490.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Rybakov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Hiroki Moriya - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.12%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Rybakov
ITF Tournaments
16.06.26	Alex Rybakov - Bruno Kuzuhara	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.05.26	Alex Rybakov - Timo Legout	Canceled ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.05.26	Alex Rybakov - Joaquim Almeida	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Alex Rybakov - Liam Krall	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	Alex Rybakov - Ryan Colby	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 L?LWW
- Hiroki Moriya
ITF Tournaments
19.06.26	Hiroki Moriya - Hoyoung Roh	0:2 ✺
18.06.26	Kuan-Yi Lee - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
17.06.26	Uisung Park - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	Seung Woo Cho - Hiroki Moriya	Cho Seung Woo Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
26.05.26	Hiroki Moriya - Timo Legout	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWW?L

Alex Rybakov - Hiroki Moriya: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide