Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Alex Rybakov		Maxim Mrva

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	3.09	1.33	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.29	1.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.13)	1.54 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Rybakov
39.1%

Maxim Mrva
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Rybakov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Maxim Mrva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Rybakov than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Rybakov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maxim Mrva than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maxim Mrva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alex Rybakov - Maxim Mrva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Rybakov is ranked ATP: 295. Mrva is ranked ATP: 323.

Both players are struggling and far from their best.

Rybakov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Rybakov
ATP Challenger
23.02.26	Alex Rybakov - Dylan Dietrich	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Alex Rybakov - Johan Nikles	2:1 ✺
ATP Dallas
07.02.26	Alex Rybakov - Murphy Cassone	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.02.26	Alex Rybakov - Christian Langmo	0:2 ✺
27.01.26	Alex Rybakov - Blaise Bicknell	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWLLL
- Maxim Mrva
ATP Challenger
24.02.26	Nishesh Basavareddy - Maxim Mrva	Canceled ✺
15.02.26	Kimmer Coppejans - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Maxim Mrva - Olle Wallin	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.01.26	Maxim Mrva - Edas Butvilas	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Maxim Mrva - Lloyd Harris	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 ?LLLL

Alex Rybakov - Maxim Mrva: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide