Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali 2 - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday


	Alexander Donski		Nicholas David Ionel

	1	2
			Watch
	1.94	1.77
	2.06	1.79
	1.9	1.8	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.92	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.66)	1.79 ↓ (2.09)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexander Donski
48.1%

Nicholas David Ionel
51.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexander Donski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexander Donski's form might have worsened.

Nicholas David Ionel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nicholas David Ionel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexander Donski than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alexander Donski, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicholas David Ionel than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nicholas David Ionel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alexander Donski - Nicholas David Ionel Predictions

Users Predictions: Nicholas David Ionel will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nicholas David Ionel will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Donski is ranked ATP: 779. Ionel is ranked ATP: 615.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ionel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Donski
ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Samuele Pieri - Alexander Donski	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	David Jorda Sanchis - Alexander Donski	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Denis Yevseyev - Alexander Donski	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Alexander Donski - S D Prajwal Dev	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Alexander Donski - Denis Yevseyev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLWL
- Nicholas David Ionel
ATP Challenger
08.03.26	Allan Gatoto - Nicholas David Ionel	0:2 ✺
03.03.26	Nicholas David Ionel - Michiel De Krom	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Eero Vasa - Nicholas David Ionel	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Nitin Kumar Sinha - Nicholas David Ionel	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
18.02.26	Nicholas David Ionel - Andrej Martin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWL

Alexander Donski - Nicholas David Ionel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide