Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Poznan - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday


	Andrew Paulson		Tiago Pereira

	1	2
			Watch
	1.91	1.75	Watch
	2.02	1.77
			Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.96	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.29)	1.76 ↑ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrew Paulson
47.1%

Tiago Pereira
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrew Paulson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Andrew Paulson's performance.

Tiago Pereira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tiago Pereira might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrew Paulson than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Andrew Paulson that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tiago Pereira than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tiago Pereira could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Paulson is ranked ATP: 563. Pereira is ranked ATP: 374.

Recent form of Paulson has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pereira is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Pereira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Pereira will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Pereira will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrew Paulson
ATP Challenger
09.06.25	Marko Topo - Andrew Paulson	2:0 ✺
01.06.25	Andrej Martin - Andrew Paulson	2:0 ✺
19.05.25	Andrew Paulson - Neil Oberleitner	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	Oleg Prihodko - Andrew Paulson	0:2 ✺
12.05.25	Nerman Fatic - Andrew Paulson	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLWL
- Tiago Pereira
ITF Tournaments
08.06.25	Tiago Pereira - Moez Echargui	0:2 ✺
07.06.25	Robin Catry - Tiago Pereira	0:2 ✺
06.06.25	Tiago Pereira - Liam Broady	2:1 ✺
05.06.25	Tiago Pereira - Michael Bassem Sobhy	2:0 ✺
04.06.25	Tiago Pereira - Ewen Lumsden	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tiago Pereira
ATP Challenger
09.10.26	Elmer Moller - Tiago Pereira	✺
08.10.26	Tiago Pereira - Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	✺

Andrew Paulson - Tiago Pereira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide