Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 6, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday


	Arthur Nagel		Michele Mecarelli

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.59	2.4
	1.48	2.44	Watch
	1.5	2.38
	1.49	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.44)	2.42 ↓ (2.6)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Nagel
61.5%

Michele Mecarelli
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Nagel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Michele Mecarelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Nagel than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michele Mecarelli than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Arthur Nagel - Michele Mecarelli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Nagel is ranked ATP: 467. Mecarelli is ranked ATP: 1109.

Nagel is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mecarelli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mecarelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nagel could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nagel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Nagel
ITF Tournaments
07.05.26	Andrey Chepelev - Arthur Nagel	1:2 ✺
06.05.26	Lorenzo Comino - Arthur Nagel	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Luca Castagnola - Arthur Nagel	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.04.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Sergio Callejon Hernando - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWLL
- Michele Mecarelli
ITF Tournaments
07.05.26	Michele Mecarelli - Lorenzo Berto	2:1 ✺
06.05.26	Michele Mecarelli - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	2:0 ✺
05.05.26	Manas Manoj Dhamne - Michele Mecarelli	Dalla Valle E./Mecarelli M. Walkover ✺
20.04.26	Michele Mecarelli - Manuel Mazza	0:2 ✺
27.03.26	Lorenzo Bocchi - Michele Mecarelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WW?LL

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