Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 6, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday


	Andrey Chepelev		Arthur Nagel

	1	2
			Watch
	1.79	2.04
	1.72	1.98	Watch
	1.72	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.71)	2 ↓ (2.02)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Chepelev
53.4%

Arthur Nagel
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Chepelev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Arthur Nagel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Nagel than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Andrey Chepelev - Arthur Nagel Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Chepelev is ranked ATP: 418. Nagel is ranked ATP: 467.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Chepelev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chepelev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Chepelev
ITF Tournaments
06.05.26	Andrey Chepelev - Sebastiano Cocola	2:0 ✺
05.05.26	Andrey Chepelev - Simone Massucco	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Daniel Bagnolini	1:2 ✺
23.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Manuel Mazza	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Andrey Chepelev - Giacomo Crisostomo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WWLLW
- Arthur Nagel
ITF Tournaments
06.05.26	Lorenzo Comino - Arthur Nagel	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Luca Castagnola - Arthur Nagel	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.04.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Sergio Callejon Hernando - Arthur Nagel	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Arthur Nagel - Felix Balshaw	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWLLL

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