Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Creteil, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	Arthur Nagel		Sebastian Sorger

	1	2
			Watch
	2.6	1.43
	2.78	1.45
	2.71	1.39	Watch
	2.63	1.4
	2.66	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (1.98)	1.42 ↓ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Nagel
34.6%

Sebastian Sorger
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Nagel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arthur Nagel's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Sorger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Sorger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Nagel than the current prediction. (+18%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arthur Nagel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Sorger than the current prediction. (-18%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sebastian Sorger, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Arthur Nagel - Sebastian Sorger Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nagel is ranked ATP: 529. Sorger is ranked ATP: 563.

In recent matches, Nagel has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sorger is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sorger may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Sorger will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Nagel
ITF Tournaments
11.03.26	Arthur Nagel - Noah Karma	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.03.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Arthur Nagel - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Adrien Gobat - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Victor Barrere - Arthur Nagel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLLW
- Sebastian Sorger
ITF Tournaments
11.03.26	Sebastian Sorger - Andrea MChich	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Sebastian Sorger - Mae Malige	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Harry Wendelken - Sebastian Sorger	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Sebastian Sorger - Daniel Masur	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Hamish Stewart - Sebastian Sorger	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.3 WWWWW

Arthur Nagel - Sebastian Sorger: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide