Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Saint Brieuc - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Arthur Nagel		Lucas Poullain

	1	2
			Watch
	2.28	1.56	Watch
	2.25	1.58	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.2	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.95)	1.57 ↑ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Nagel
40.8%

Lucas Poullain
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Nagel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arthur Nagel's performance.

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucas Poullain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Nagel than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arthur Nagel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucas Poullain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Arthur Nagel - Lucas Poullain Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nagel will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Poullain will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Nagel is ranked ATP: 533. Poullain is ranked ATP: 418.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nagel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Poullain is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nagel won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Lucas Poullain - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 68.6%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Nagel
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Adrien Gobat - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Victor Barrere - Arthur Nagel	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Octave Caillat - Arthur Nagel	Caillat O. retired ✺
05.02.26	Carles Hernandez - Arthur Nagel	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Samuel Heredia - Arthur Nagel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LW?LW
- Lucas Poullain
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Lucas Poullain - Yanis Ghazouani Durand	1:2 ✺
19.02.26	Lucas Poullain - Leo Raquillet	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Lucas Poullain - Luc Fomba	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Clement Tabur - Lucas Poullain	2:0 ✺
27.01.26	Lucas Poullain - Maks Kasnikowski	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
02.11.23	Arthur Nagel - Lucas Poullain	0:2

Arthur Nagel - Lucas Poullain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide