Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Sarreguemines, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday


	Calvin Mueller		Matt Ponchet

	1	2
			Watch
	1.35	3.01
	1.35	2.90	Watch
	1.38	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.37)	2.92 ↓ (2.99)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Calvin Mueller
68.2%

Matt Ponchet
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Calvin Mueller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Matt Ponchet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Calvin Mueller than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matt Ponchet than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Calvin Mueller - Matt Ponchet Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Ponchet (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponchet (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mueller is ranked ATP: 978. Ponchet is ranked ATP: 1620.

Mueller is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Ponchet has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mueller may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mueller is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calvin Mueller
ITF Tournaments
21.10.25	Aaron Gil Garcia - Calvin Mueller	0:2 ✺
15.10.25	Calvin Mueller - Max Schoenhaus	1:2 ✺
14.10.25	Michal Krajci - Calvin Mueller	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Tom Zeuch - Calvin Mueller	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Calvin Mueller - Alexis Gautier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWW
- Matt Ponchet
ITF Tournaments
21.10.25	Matt Ponchet - Maxence Beauge	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Robin Catry - Matt Ponchet	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Damien Clerc - Matt Ponchet	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Matt Ponchet - Timeo Trufelli	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Philippe Renard - Matt Ponchet	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWLL

Calvin Mueller - Matt Ponchet: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide