Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25+H Kassel, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 July 2026, Wednesday


	Dominik Recek		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.05
	1.65	2.10
	1.75	2.10
	1.65	2.08	Watch
	1.72	2.07
	1.68	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.65)	2.07 (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dominik Recek
55.2%

Luca Castagnola
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dominik Recek has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dominik Recek than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dominik Recek, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Castagnola, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Dominik Recek - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recek is ranked ATP: 930. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 897.

In recent matches, Recek has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castagnola is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castagnola may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dominik Recek
ITF Tournaments
01.07.26	Dominik Recek - Aryan Shah	0:2 ✺
11.06.26	Dominik Recek - Rudolf Molleker	0:2 ✺
09.06.26	Dominik Recek - Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Dominik Recek - Khumoun Sultanov	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Dominik Recek - Adrian Oetzbach	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWLW
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
05.07.26	Lorenzo Angelini - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Matyas Cerny	2:0 ✺
03.07.26	Jonas Kucera - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
02.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Tomasz Berkieta	2:0 ✺
02.07.26	Mak Mikovic - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LWWWW

Dominik Recek - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide