Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Umag, clay - Final

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday


	Lorenzo Angelini		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	1.48	2.40
	1.52	2.55
	1.48	2.44	Watch
	1.5	2.5
	1.47	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.47)	2.48 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Angelini
62.4%

Luca Castagnola
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Angelini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Angelini than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Angelini, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Castagnola, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lorenzo Angelini - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Angelini is ranked ATP: 683. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 897.

Recent performances by Angelini have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castagnola is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castagnola may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Angelini is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Angelini
ITF Tournaments
04.07.26	Andrej Martin - Lorenzo Angelini	Martin A. Retired ✺
03.07.26	Giovanni Oradini - Lorenzo Angelini	Oradini G. Retired ✺
02.07.26	Edoardo Cherie Ligniere - Lorenzo Angelini	0:2 ✺
02.07.26	Henry Best - Lorenzo Angelini	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.06.26	Lorenzo Angelini - Dali Blanch	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 ??WWL
- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
04.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Matyas Cerny	2:0 ✺
03.07.26	Jonas Kucera - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
02.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Tomasz Berkieta	2:0 ✺
02.07.26	Mak Mikovic - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
18.06.26	Luca Castagnola - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWL

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