Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Sarasota, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sarasota 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Eliot Spizzirri		Emilio Nava

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	3.2	1.3	Watch
	3.05	1.33	Watch
	3.35	1.32	Watch
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.15	1.33	Watch
	3.05	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (2.46)	1.33 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eliot Spizzirri
29.7%

Emilio Nava
70.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.9%

62.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

63.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eliot Spizzirri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Eliot Spizzirri's form might have worsened.

Emilio Nava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Emilio Nava's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eliot Spizzirri than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Eliot Spizzirri, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emilio Nava than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emilio Nava, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Eliot Spizzirri - Emilio Nava Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Spizzirri will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Nava will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spizzirri: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Nava (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nava (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Spizzirri is ranked ATP: 127. Nava is ranked ATP: 169.

Spizzirri is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Nava in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Spizzirri could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Spizzirri won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Eliot Spizzirri
ATP Challenger
11.04.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	2:0 ✺
09.04.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Charlie Robertson	2:0 ✺
08.04.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
21.03.25	Sebastian Korda - Eliot Spizzirri	2:0 ✺
19.03.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Billy Harris	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLW
- Emilio Nava
ATP Challenger
11.04.25	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
10.04.25	Gabi Adrian Boitan - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Chris Rodesch - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
30.03.25	Nicolas Kicker - Emilio Nava	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Emilio Nava - Genaro Alberto Olivieri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
26.08.23	Emilio Nava - Eliot Spizzirri	Spizzirri E. retired

Eliot Spizzirri - Emilio Nava