Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Midland, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 February 2026, Thursday


	Elvina Kalieva		Sakura Hosogi

	1	2
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.3	3.25	Watch
	1.31	3.56
	1.22	3.93	Watch
	1.3	3.4
	1.32	3.09	Watch
	1.3	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.44)	3.42 ↑ (2.62)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvina Kalieva
72.6%

Sakura Hosogi
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvina Kalieva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elvina Kalieva's performance.

Sakura Hosogi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sakura Hosogi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elvina Kalieva than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elvina Kalieva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sakura Hosogi than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sakura Hosogi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Elvina Kalieva - Sakura Hosogi Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kalieva will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Hosogi will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kalieva is ranked WTA: 158. Hosogi is ranked WTA: 323.

Kalieva has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Hosogi is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hosogi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kalieva is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elvina Kalieva
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Elvina Kalieva - Anna Sinclair Rogers	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.02.26	Elvina Kalieva - Elizabeth Mandlik	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Elvina Kalieva - Jennifer Brady	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Louisa Chirico - Elvina Kalieva	0:2 ✺
29.01.26	Vivian Wolff - Elvina Kalieva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWWW
- Sakura Hosogi
ATP Challenger
17.02.26	Sakura Hosogi - Claire Liu	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Sakura Hosogi - Alana Smith	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sakura Hosogi - Carson Tanguilig	2:1 ✺
26.01.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Sakura Hosogi	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Sakura Hosogi - Stefi Marithe Aludo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWLW

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