Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham 3 - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Federico Arnaboldi		Tommaso Compagnucci

	1	2
			Watch
	1.45	2.55	Watch
	1.46	2.52	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.45	2.56	Watch
	1.46	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.6)	2.57 ↑ (2.16)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federico Arnaboldi
63.9%

Tommaso Compagnucci
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Arnaboldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Federico Arnaboldi's performance.

Tommaso Compagnucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tommaso Compagnucci might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommaso Compagnucci than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Federico Arnaboldi - Tommaso Compagnucci Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Arnaboldi will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Compagnucci will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Compagnucci (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 388. Compagnucci is ranked ATP: 529.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Arnaboldi might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Federico Arnaboldi - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
19.11.25	Federico Arnaboldi - Nerman Fatic	2:1 ✺
18.11.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Federico Arnaboldi	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Federico Arnaboldi - Alexander Donski	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Federico Arnaboldi - Nicola Rispoli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWWLW
- Tommaso Compagnucci
ATP Challenger
24.11.25	Lilian Marmousez - Tommaso Compagnucci	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Tiago Torres - Tommaso Compagnucci	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
21.11.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Georgii Kravchenko	0:2 ✺
20.11.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Alec Deckers	2:1 ✺
18.11.25	Tommaso Compagnucci - Robin Catry	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLWW

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