Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Quito 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Quito 2 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Fernando Cavallo		Mwendwa Mbithi

	1	2
	1.56	2.49
	1.52	2.34	Watch
	1.53	2.3
	1.57	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.53)	2.35 ↑ (2.34)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fernando Cavallo
60.3%

Mwendwa Mbithi
39.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.4%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fernando Cavallo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Mwendwa Mbithi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fernando Cavallo than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fernando Cavallo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mwendwa Mbithi than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mwendwa Mbithi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fernando Cavallo - Mwendwa Mbithi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cavallo is ranked ATP: 879. Mbithi is ranked ATP: 724.

Cavallo is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Mbithi has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mbithi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Cavallo could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Cavallo will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fernando Cavallo
ITF Tournaments
30.04.26	Fernando Cavallo - Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto	2:1 ✺
28.04.26	Fernando Cavallo - Francisco Castro	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Herman Hoeyeraal - Fernando Cavallo	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez - Fernando Cavallo	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Fernando Cavallo - Ryan Dickerson	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWW
- Mwendwa Mbithi
ITF Tournaments
30.04.26	Felipe De Dios - Mwendwa Mbithi	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Herman Hoeyeraal - Mwendwa Mbithi	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	Benjamin Willwerth - Mwendwa Mbithi	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Mwendwa Mbithi - Jacob Brumm	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Mwendwa Mbithi - William Nolan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLLW

Fernando Cavallo - Mwendwa Mbithi

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Fernando Cavallo - Mwendwa Mbithi Predictions

Preview

Form

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