Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Islamabad, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 27 November 2025, Thursday


	Gian Luca Tanner		Mert Alkaya

	1	2
	3	1.36	Watch
	3	1.34	Watch
	3.12	1.38
	2.99	1.34	Watch
	2.99	1.34	Watch
	3	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.26)	1.35 ↓ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gian Luca Tanner
30.9%

Mert Alkaya
69.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

59.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gian Luca Tanner has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gian Luca Tanner's form might have worsened.

Mert Alkaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mert Alkaya's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gian Luca Tanner than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gian Luca Tanner, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mert Alkaya, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gian Luca Tanner - Mert Alkaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tanner is ranked ATP: 897. Alkaya is ranked ATP: 473.

Tanner has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alkaya is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Tanner may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Alkaya could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Alkaya will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gian Luca Tanner
ATP Challenger
25.11.25	Alexey Aleshchev - Gian Luca Tanner	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
19.11.25	Marc Majdandzic - Gian Luca Tanner	Tanner G. L. retired ✺
15.11.25	Alex Kuperstein - Gian Luca Tanner	Tanner G. L. retired ✺
14.11.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine	2:1 ✺
13.11.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Mikail Alimli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 W??WW
- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
25.11.25	Samir Iftikhar - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Mert Alkaya - Jannik Opitz	Alkaya M. retired ✺
31.10.25	Petr Brunclik - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
29.10.25	Eliakim Coulibaly - Mert Alkaya	1:2 ✺
28.10.25	Mert Alkaya - Kimmer Coppejans	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 W?LWW

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