Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Todi, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 August 2025, Tuesday


	Gianmarco Ferrari		Lorenzo Carboni

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2.05	1.7
	2.01	1.72	Watch
	2.11	1.75
	2.03	1.75	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	1.86	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.86)	1.75 ↓ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gianmarco Ferrari
46.5%

Lorenzo Carboni
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gianmarco Ferrari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gianmarco Ferrari than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gianmarco Ferrari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lorenzo Carboni, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gianmarco Ferrari - Lorenzo Carboni Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ferrari is ranked ATP: 594. Carboni is ranked ATP: 552.

Ferrari has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carboni is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Carboni may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferrari won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Carboni - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gianmarco Ferrari
ATP Challenger
11.08.25	Ivan Liutarevich - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	Simone Agostini - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
29.07.25	Gianmarco Ferrari - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
24.07.25	Jan Kumstat - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Daniele Rapagnetta - Gianmarco Ferrari	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLW
- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Challenger
12.08.25	Jan Kumstat - Lorenzo Carboni	Canceled ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.07.25	Alexander Weis - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Gabriele Crivellaro	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Jacopo Bilardo	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Niccolo Ciavarella	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 ?LWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
03.04.25	Gianmarco Ferrari - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0

Gianmarco Ferrari - Lorenzo Carboni: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide