Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Todi, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 August 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Todi 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Jan Kumstat		Lorenzo Carboni

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Jan Kumstat
41.1%

Lorenzo Carboni
58.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jan Kumstat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jan Kumstat than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (-4%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Kumstat is ranked ATP: 871. Carboni is ranked ATP: 552.

Kumstat is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Carboni is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kumstat may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carboni is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Carboni will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jan Kumstat
ITF Tournaments
10.08.25	Jan Kumstat - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	Kumstat J. retired ✺
09.08.25	Jan Kumstat - Andrea Fiorentini	2:0 ✺
08.08.25	Radovan Michalik - Jan Kumstat	0:2 ✺
07.08.25	Vladan Tadic - Jan Kumstat	0:2 ✺
06.08.25	Patrik Homola - Jan Kumstat	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 ?WWWW
- Lorenzo Carboni
ITF Tournaments
27.07.25	Alexander Weis - Lorenzo Carboni	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Gabriele Crivellaro	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Jacopo Bilardo	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Niccolo Ciavarella	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.07.25	Lorenzo Carboni - Gonzalo Villanueva	Carboni L. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWWW?

Jan Kumstat - Lorenzo Carboni