Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Curitiba, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday


	Gustavo Heide		Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves

	1	2
	1.30	3.20
	1.28	3.55
	1.3	3.18	Watch
	1.32	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.5)	3.31 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gustavo Heide
71.8%

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gustavo Heide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gustavo Heide's performance.

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gustavo Heide than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gustavo Heide that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Gustavo Heide - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Heide will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Meligeni will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Meligeni (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Heide is ranked ATP: 122., and Meligeni is ranked ATP: 463..

Heide is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Meligeni has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Heide may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Heide holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Gustavo Heide - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.09%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Gustavo Heide - Hernan Casanova	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group I
19.09.26	Gustavo Heide - Dominic Stephan Stricker	Canceled ✺
18.09.26	Gustavo Heide - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.09.26	Mika Brunold - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 W?WLW
- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Carlos Maria Zarate	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Hugo Dellien - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Alejo Sanchez Quilez	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Moise Kouame	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

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