Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Curitiba, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves		Carlos Maria Zarate

	1	2
	1.24	3.60
	1.25	3.6
	1.25	3.58	Watch
	1.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.35)	3.66 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
74.6%

Carlos Maria Zarate
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves's performance.

Carlos Maria Zarate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Maria Zarate might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Maria Zarate than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlos Maria Zarate could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Carlos Maria Zarate Predictions

Users Predictions: Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Meligeni is ranked ATP: 463., and Zarate is ranked ATP: 344..

Recent results have been tough for Meligeni (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Zarate is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Meligeni could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Meligeni carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Zarate in today's match, at odds of 2.92.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 68.6%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
ATP Challenger
08.09.26	Hugo Dellien - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Alejo Sanchez Quilez	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Dalibor Svrcina - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Moise Kouame	0:2 ✺
18.08.26	Dali Blanch - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLLLW
- Carlos Maria Zarate
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Carlos Maria Zarate - Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.09.26	Carlos Maria Zarate - Lorenzo Gagliardo	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Carlos Maria Zarate - Felix Corwin	2:0 ✺
03.09.26	Carlos Maria Zarate - Valentino Grippo	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Carlos Maria Zarate - Giovanni Branchetti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWW

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