Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Miyazaki - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Hiroki Moriya		Karol Filar

	1	2
			Watch
	1.4	2.71	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.41	2.69	Watch
	1.76	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.76)	2.51 ↑ (1.88)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hiroki Moriya
62.7%

Karol Filar
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hiroki Moriya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hiroki Moriya's performance.

Karol Filar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karol Filar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hiroki Moriya that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karol Filar than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karol Filar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Moriya is ranked ATP: 462. Filar is ranked ATP: 620.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Moriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
21.03.26	Masamichi Imamura - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.03.26	Hiroki Moriya - Stefan Vujic	Moriya H. retired ✺
07.03.26	Yu Hsiou Hsu - Hiroki Moriya	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Omar Jasika - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Hiroki Moriya - Li Tu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 L?LWL
- Karol Filar
ITF Tournaments
23.03.26	Karol Filar - Taisei Ichikawa	1:2 ✺
18.03.26	Karol Filar - James Kent Trotter	0:2 ✺
17.03.26	Karol Filar - Yuto Oki	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Karol Filar - Hunter Heck	0:2 ✺
10.03.26	Karol Filar - Shuta Konatsu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLW

Hiroki Moriya - Karol Filar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide