Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lexington, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday


	Jay Dylan Hara Friend		Colton Smith

	1	2
			Watch
	2.10	1.65
	2.1	1.65	Watch
	2.21	1.72
	2.16	1.63	Watch
	1.89	1.88	Watch
	2.15	1.63	Watch
	2.15	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.19)	1.68 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend
44.3%

Colton Smith
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

62.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Dylan Hara Friend has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Colton Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jay Dylan Hara Friend than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jay Dylan Hara Friend that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colton Smith could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Colton Smith Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Hara Friend will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Smith will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hara Friend is ranked ATP: 376. Smith is ranked ATP: 184.

Hara Friend is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Smith has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hara Friend may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Smith will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hara Friend won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Colton Smith - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.8%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Dylan Hara Friend
ATP Challenger
31.07.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Jeffrey John Wolf	0:2 ✺
30.07.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Jay Dylan Hara Friend	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Liam Broady - Jay Dylan Hara Friend	1:2 ✺
28.07.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Connor Church	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWWWW
- Colton Smith
ATP Los Cabos
26.07.26	Roger Pascual Ferra - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
21.07.26	Colton Smith - Jeffrey John Wolf	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Colton Smith - Bu Yunchaokete	1:2 ✺
16.07.26	Colton Smith - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
14.07.26	Colton Smith - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
29.06.24	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Colton Smith	0:2

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