Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lincoln, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lincoln 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Colton Smith		Bu Yunchaokete

	1	2
	2.30	1.55
	2.3	1.55
	2.57	1.56
	2.48	1.49	Watch
	2.5	1.54
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.3	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.23)	1.54 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
39.2%

Bu Yunchaokete
60.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.8%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Bu Yunchaokete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bu Yunchaokete than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Colton Smith - Bu Yunchaokete Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Yunchaokete will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 181. Yunchaokete is ranked ATP: 109.

Smith is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Yunchaokete has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Yunchaokete is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Bu Yunchaokete - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.22%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Challenger
16.07.26	Colton Smith - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
14.07.26	Colton Smith - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
25.06.26	Colton Smith - Michael Zheng	1:3 ✺
24.06.26	Borna Gojo - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
22.06.26	Andres Andrade - Colton Smith	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW
- Bu Yunchaokete
ATP Challenger
16.07.26	Yibing Wu - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Evan Zhu - Bu Yunchaokete	1:2 ✺
09.07.26	Daniel Milavsky - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
08.07.26	Daniil Glinka - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
24.06.26	Bu Yunchaokete - Clement Tabur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWL

Colton Smith - Bu Yunchaokete