Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday


	Joel Schwaerzler		Mirza Basic

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.6	2.21	Watch
	1.6	2.2
	1.62	2.2
	1.63	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.48)	2.19 ↓ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joel Schwaerzler
57.6%

Mirza Basic
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Joel Schwaerzler's form might have worsened.

Mirza Basic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirza Basic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirza Basic than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Joel Schwaerzler - Mirza Basic Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Schwaerzler will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Basic will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 242. Basic is ranked ATP: 497.

Recent performances by Schwaerzler have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Basic is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Schwaerzler may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Schwaerzler will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Challenger
19.02.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Moise Kouame	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	David Goffin - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
29.01.26	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Vadym Ursu - Joel Schwaerzler	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Borna Gojo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLWL
- Mirza Basic
ATP Challenger
23.02.26	Niels Visker - Mirza Basic	0:2 ✺
22.02.26	Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg - Mirza Basic	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
20.02.26	Jacopo Vasami - Mirza Basic	2:0 ✺
19.02.26	Leonardo Malgaroli - Mirza Basic	0:2 ✺
18.02.26	Mirza Basic - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWW

Joel Schwaerzler - Mirza Basic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide