Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday


	Karolina Muchova		Iga Swiatek

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.55	1.5
	2.65	1.55
	2.7	1.47	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.56	1.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.32)	1.5 ↓ (1.59)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karolina Muchova
36.5%

Iga Swiatek
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karolina Muchova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Iga Swiatek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karolina Muchova than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Karolina Muchova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Iga Swiatek than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Iga Swiatek, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Karolina Muchova - Iga Swiatek Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Muchova will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Swiatek will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swiatek: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Muchova (votes: 1 - 50%). Swiatek (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Muchova (4.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3 Games - Muchova (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Muchova (votes: 3 - 75%). Swiatek (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Muchova is ranked WTA: 13. Swiatek is ranked WTA: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Muchova won 0.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Swiatek will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Swiatek will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Muchova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Karolina Muchova - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.66%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karolina Muchova
WTA Indian Wells
09.03.26	Karolina Muchova - Antonia Ruzic	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Karolina Muchova - Anna Bondar	2:0 ✺
WTA Dubai
16.02.26	Moyuka Uchijima - Karolina Muchova	Canceled ✺
WTA Doha
14.02.26	Karolina Muchova - Victoria Mboko	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Maria Sakkari - Karolina Muchova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WW?WW
- Iga Swiatek
WTA Indian Wells
09.03.26	Maria Sakkari - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Kayla Day - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
WTA Doha
12.02.26	Iga Swiatek - Maria Sakkari	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Iga Swiatek - Darya Kasatkina	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Iga Swiatek - Janice Tjen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Indian Wells
11.03.25	Karolina Muchova - Iga Swiatek	0:2
WTA United Cup
31.12.24	Iga Swiatek - Karolina Muchova	2:0
WTA Montreal
10.08.23	Iga Swiatek - Karolina Muchova	2:1
WTA Roland Garros
10.06.23	Iga Swiatek - Karolina Muchova	2:1
Exhibition Tipsport Elite Trophy 4 Women
09.08.20	Iga Swiatek - Karolina Muchova	Canceled
Exhibition Tipsport Elite Trophy Women
18.07.20	Karolina Muchova - Iga Swiatek	2:1
WTA Prague
30.04.19	Karolina Muchova - Iga Swiatek	2:1

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