Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Urayasu, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday


	Keisuke Saitoh		Chase Ferguson

	1	2
			Watch
	1.78	1.90
	1.79	1.91	Watch
	1.83	1.99
	1.72	1.98	Watch
	1.81	1.97
	1.65	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.46)	1.96 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keisuke Saitoh
52.7%

Chase Ferguson
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keisuke Saitoh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keisuke Saitoh's form might have worsened.

Chase Ferguson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chase Ferguson's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keisuke Saitoh than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Keisuke Saitoh, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chase Ferguson than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chase Ferguson, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Keisuke Saitoh - Chase Ferguson Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Saitoh is ranked ATP: 672. Ferguson is ranked ATP: 646.

Saitoh has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ferguson is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Saitoh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Saitoh is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Saitoh won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keisuke Saitoh
ITF Tournaments
31.08.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Sena Okabe	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
17.08.26	Tsung-Hao Huang - Keisuke Saitoh	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Sam Ryan Ziegann	1:2 ✺
31.07.26	Sanhui Shin - Keisuke Saitoh	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLW
- Chase Ferguson
ITF Tournaments
01.09.26	Yusuke Takahashi - Chase Ferguson	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Rigele Te - Chase Ferguson	2:0 ✺
27.08.26	Chase Ferguson - Fumin Jiang	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Chase Ferguson - Hanyi Liu	2:0 ✺
26.08.26	Chase Ferguson - Yua Taka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
01.04.26	Chase Ferguson - Keisuke Saitoh	2:0

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