Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Luzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 June 2025, Wednesday


	Linang Xiao		Luca Castelnuovo

	1	2
	1.59	2.18
	1.65	2.15
			Watch
	1.73	2
	1.6	2.22	Watch
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.83)	2.08 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Linang Xiao
55.3%

Luca Castelnuovo
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Linang Xiao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Linang Xiao's performance.

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luca Castelnuovo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Linang Xiao than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Linang Xiao that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luca Castelnuovo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Xiao is ranked ATP: 652. Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 663.

Xiao has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Castelnuovo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castelnuovo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Castelnuovo - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Linang Xiao
ITF Tournaments
10.06.25	Linang Xiao - Egor Gerasimov	1:2 ✺
05.06.25	Rigele Te - Linang Xiao	2:0 ✺
03.06.25	Adrian Arcon - Linang Xiao	0:2 ✺
24.05.25	Kokoro Isomura - Linang Xiao	0:2 ✺
23.05.25	Linang Xiao - Taiyo Yamanaka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWWW
- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
01.06.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Arda Azkara	1:2 ✺
31.05.25	Daniel De Jonge - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
31.05.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Georgi Georgiev	2:0 ✺
30.05.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Alp Horoz	2:0 ✺
29.05.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Salvador Price	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWWW

Linang Xiao - Luca Castelnuovo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide