Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 11, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Santa Margherita di Pula 11 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Lorenzo Carboni		Alexander Chang

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Lorenzo Carboni
67.2%

Alexander Chang
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.4%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Alexander Chang has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Chang than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Carboni is ranked ATP: 550., and Chang is ranked ATP: 1130..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Carboni may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Carboni is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Challenger
14.10.26	Luca Nardi - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Mackenzie McDonald	McDonald M. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.10.26	Federico Iannaccone - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Sander Jong	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Javier Barranco Cosano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 L?LLW
- Alexander Chang
ITF Tournaments
13.10.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Alexander Chang	2:1 ✺
07.10.26	Rares Teodor Pieleanu - Alexander Chang	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Nathan Anthony Barki - Alexander Chang	1:2 ✺
10.09.26	Alexander Chang - Pablo Perez Ramos	2:0 ✺
09.09.26	Leo Borg - Alexander Chang	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLWWW

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexander Chang
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Valentin Lapalu - Alexander Chang	✺

Lorenzo Carboni - Alexander Chang