Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pune, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday


	Lorenzo Carboni		Yuta Shimizu

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.79	1.91	Watch
	1.76	1.95	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.76	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.85)	1.91 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Carboni
51.6%

Yuta Shimizu
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Carboni has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Yuta Shimizu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Carboni than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yuta Shimizu than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Lorenzo Carboni - Yuta Shimizu Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Carboni will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Shimizu will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Carboni (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Shimizu (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 Games - Shimizu (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carboni (votes: 2 - 50%). Shimizu (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Carboni is ranked ATP: 428. Shimizu is ranked ATP: 360.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Shimizu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Carboni - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.63%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Yuta Shimizu - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50.37%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Carboni
ATP Challenger
15.02.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Manish Sureshkumar	1:2 ✺
11.02.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Federico Agustin Gomez	0:2 ✺
10.02.26	Lorenzo Carboni - S D Prajwal Dev	Dev S D P. retired ✺
25.01.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Chase Ferguson	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Lorenzo Carboni - Kokoro Isomura	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LL?LW
- Yuta Shimizu
ATP Challenger
03.02.26	Alex Bolt - Yuta Shimizu	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	Yuta Shimizu - Renta Tokuda	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Yuta Shimizu - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
07.01.26	Yuta Shimizu - Marek Gengel	1:2 ✺
06.01.26	Yuta Shimizu - Taisei Ichikawa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW

Lorenzo Carboni - Yuta Shimizu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide