Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Nova Gorica, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday


	Luca Castagnola		Menelaos Efstathiou

	1	2
	1.55	2.25
	1.60	2.38
	1.56	2.23
	1.57	2.35
	1.55	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.83)	2.3 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
59.5%

Menelaos Efstathiou
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castagnola's performance.

Menelaos Efstathiou has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Menelaos Efstathiou might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castagnola that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Menelaos Efstathiou than the current prediction. (+17.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Menelaos Efstathiou could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castagnola - Menelaos Efstathiou Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Castagnola is ranked ATP: 847. Efstathiou is ranked ATP: 648.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Efstathiou may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Castagnola - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ITF Tournaments
16.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Matteo Fondriest	2:0 ✺
15.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Edoardo Cherie Ligniere	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	Dominik Recek - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Lorenzo Angelini - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
04.07.26	Luca Castagnola - Matyas Cerny	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLLW
- Menelaos Efstathiou
ITF Tournaments
16.07.26	Alexander Gschiel - Menelaos Efstathiou	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Lorenzo Ferri - Menelaos Efstathiou	0:2 ✺
01.07.26	Marko Retelj - Menelaos Efstathiou	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Theo Papamalamis - Menelaos Efstathiou	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Mickael Kaouk - Menelaos Efstathiou	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLLW

Upcoming Matches