Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hersonissos 4 - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday


	Luca Castagnola		Nikita Bilozertsev

	1	2
			Watch
	1.57	2.2	Watch
	1.53	2.35	Watch
	1.56	2.24	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.56	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.5)	2.27 ↓ (2.49)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
59.3%

Nikita Bilozertsev
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.4%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Nikita Bilozertsev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castagnola, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nikita Bilozertsev than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nikita Bilozertsev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Luca Castagnola - Nikita Bilozertsev Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Castagnola will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Bilozertsev will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bilozertsev (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Preview

Castagnola is ranked ATP: 575. Bilozertsev is ranked ATP: 878.

In recent matches, Castagnola has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bilozertsev is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Castagnola may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Castagnola might have a minor edge in this game.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
12.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
11.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Leo Raquillet	2:0 ✺
10.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Demetris Azoides	2:0 ✺
28.07.25	Martin Krumich - Luca Castagnola	2:0 ✺
27.07.25	S D Prajwal Dev - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLW
- Nikita Bilozertsev
ITF Tournaments
07.08.25	Nikita Bilozertsev - Michele Ribecai	0:2 ✺
05.08.25	Nikita Bilozertsev - Yoan Naydenov	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Nikita Bilozertsev - Mirza Basic	Bilozertsev N. retired ✺
25.07.25	Marcello Serafini - Nikita Bilozertsev	0:2 ✺
24.07.25	Nikita Bilozertsev - Demetris Azoides	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LW?WW

Luca Castagnola - Nikita Bilozertsev: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide