Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Monastir 42, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 November 2025, Thursday


	Luca Wiedenmann		Matthew Donald

	1	2
	1.72	1.98	Watch
	1.74	1.95	Watch
	1.75	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.01)	1.94 ↑ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Wiedenmann
52.7%

Matthew Donald
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Wiedenmann has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Wiedenmann's performance.

Matthew Donald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matthew Donald might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Wiedenmann than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Wiedenmann that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matthew Donald could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Wiedenmann - Matthew Donald Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Wiedenmann is ranked ATP: 1045. Donald is ranked ATP: 685.

Wiedenmann has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Donald is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Wiedenmann may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Donald will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Wiedenmann
ITF Tournaments
19.11.25	Luca Wiedenmann - Noel Larwig	2:0 ✺
13.11.25	Luca Wiedenmann - Luca Potenza	0:2 ✺
12.11.25	Luca Wiedenmann - Savva Rybkin	2:1 ✺
24.10.25	Igor Kudriashov - Luca Wiedenmann	Wiedenmann L. retired ✺
23.10.25	Luca Wiedenmann - Toufik Sahtali	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLW?W
- Matthew Donald
ITF Tournaments
19.11.25	Giannicola Misasi - Matthew Donald	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Max Schoenhaus - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	Matthew Donald - Fabrizio Andaloro	2:1 ✺
14.11.25	Matthew Donald - Alexandre Aubriot	2:0 ✺
13.11.25	Matthew Donald - Andrea Paolini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWW

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