Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday


	Madison Keys		Iga Swiatek

	1	2
	3.4	1.33	Watch
	3.2	1.35
	3.45	1.31
	3.42	1.36
	3.09	1.37	Watch
	3.3	1.33
	3.31	1.34	Watch
	3.45	1.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (3.16)	1.34 ↑ (1.29)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Madison Keys
28.7%

Iga Swiatek
71.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

71%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Iga Swiatek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.6%	0%	17.4%

Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Keys will win (votes: 19 - 82.6%). Swiatek will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Keys: 67.1% – 98.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Keys (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Keys (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Madison Keys will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Keys (votes: 16 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Keys is ranked WTA: 5. Swiatek is ranked WTA: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches Keys won 2.

Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.

Keys could have advantage in physical - more days for rest in last days.

In this match, Swiatek is a favorite.

Our prediction is that Swiatek will win today's game, with odds 1.33.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Keys won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9 (average 0.7:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Madison Keys
WTA Madrid
29.04.25	Madison Keys - Donna Vekic	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Madison Keys - Anna Kalinskaya	2:0 ✺
24.04.25	Madison Keys - Lucia Bronzetti	2:0 ✺
WTA Charleston
03.04.25	Anna Kalinskaya - Madison Keys	2:0 ✺
01.04.25	Caroline Dolehide - Madison Keys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWLW
- Iga Swiatek
WTA Madrid
29.04.25	Diana Shnaider - Iga Swiatek	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Linda Noskova - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
24.04.25	Alexandra Eala - Iga Swiatek	1:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
19.04.25	Jelena Ostapenko - Iga Swiatek	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Jana Fett - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Australian Open
23.01.25	Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek	2:1
WTA Roma
14.05.24	Iga Swiatek - Madison Keys	2:0
WTA Madrid
02.05.24	Iga Swiatek - Madison Keys	2:0
WTA Cincinnati
18.08.22	Iga Swiatek - Madison Keys	0:2
WTA Indian Wells
16.03.22	Iga Swiatek - Madison Keys	2:0
WTA Roma
12.05.21	Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek	0:2

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