Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelos, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 31 March 2025, Monday


	Mark Lajal		Nicolas Mejia

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.48	2.45	Watch
	1.5	2.35	Watch
	1.5	2.51	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.5	2.48	Watch
	1.5	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.57)	2.47 ↑ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mark Lajal
62.4%

Nicolas Mejia
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mark Lajal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Nicolas Mejia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mark Lajal than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Mark Lajal - Nicolas Mejia Predictions

Users Predictions: Mark Lajal will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Lajal is ranked ATP: 205. Mejia is ranked ATP: 190.

Lajal is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Mejia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mejia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Lajal will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mark Lajal
ATP Challenger
27.03.25	Bernard Tomic - Mark Lajal	2:1 ✺
25.03.25	Mark Lajal - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
20.03.25	Mark Lajal - Oren Vasser	2:0 ✺
18.03.25	Mark Lajal - Juan Jose Bianchi	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
01.02.25	Mark Lajal - Ignacio Parisca	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWWW?
- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
24.03.25	Nicolas Mejia - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	1:2 ✺
13.03.25	Nicolas Mejia - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
12.03.25	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
11.03.25	Nicolas Mejia - Petr Nesterov	2:0 ✺
10.03.25	Nicolas Mejia - Francisco Cabral	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LLWWW

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