Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pozoblanco, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 July 2025, Tuesday


	Mateus Alves		Edward Winter

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.75	1.39	Watch
	2.69	1.48
	2.66	1.44	Watch
	2.8	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.89)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mateus Alves
34.2%

Edward Winter
65.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

67.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

71.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mateus Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Edward Winter has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mateus Alves than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mateus Alves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Edward Winter than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Edward Winter could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Mateus Alves - Edward Winter Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Alves will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Winter will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Winter (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Winter (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alves (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Winter (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alves is ranked ATP: 356. Winter is ranked ATP: 609.

In recent matches, Alves has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Winter is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Winter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Winter is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Winter will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mateus Alves
ITF Tournaments
10.07.25	Mateus Alves - Daniel Siniakov	1:2 ✺
09.07.25	Mateus Alves - Florian Broska	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.06.25	Mateus Alves - Thomas Faurel	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Mateus Alves - Zdenek Kolar	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Mateus Alves - Alan Bojarski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLLW
- Edward Winter
ATP Challenger
14.07.25	Alexandr Binda - Edward Winter	0:2 ✺
13.07.25	Edward Winter - Olaf Pieczkowski	2:0 ✺
11.07.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Edward Winter	2:1 ✺
09.07.25	Connor Thomson - Edward Winter	0:2 ✺
08.07.25	Edward Winter - Johannus Monday	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWLWW

Mateus Alves - Edward Winter: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide