Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Rognac, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rognac 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Mathys Picard		Loan Lestir

	1	2
	1.50	2.35
	1.56	2.28
	1.55	2.48
	1.52	2.34	Watch
	1.53	2.45
	1.51	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.56)	2.38 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathys Picard
60.9%

Loan Lestir
39.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.4%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathys Picard has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Loan Lestir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathys Picard than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mathys Picard that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loan Lestir than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Loan Lestir could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mathys Picard - Loan Lestir Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Picard is ranked ATP: 1128. Lestir is ranked ATP: 1454.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Lestir may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Picard might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathys Picard
ITF Tournaments
22.07.26	Max Benaim - Mathys Picard	1:2 ✺
16.07.26	Mathys Picard - Sean Cuenin	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Mathys Picard - Laurin Aerne	2:0 ✺
30.06.26	Tuncay Duran - Mathys Picard	Picard M. Retired ✺
28.06.26	Mathys Picard - Roger Pascual Ferra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLW?L
- Loan Lestir
ITF Tournaments
22.07.26	Loan Lestir - Timofei Derepasko	Derepasko T. Retired ✺
25.06.26	Loan Lestir - Keshav Chopra	0:2 ✺
24.06.26	Loan Lestir - Muzammil Murtaza	2:0 ✺
17.06.26	Keshav Chopra - Loan Lestir	2:0 ✺
29.05.26	Loan Lestir - Izan Almazan Valiente	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 ?LWLL

Mathys Picard - Loan Lestir

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Mathys Picard - Loan Lestir Predictions

Preview

Form

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