Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Santiago 6, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday


	Matteo Covato		Bruno Fernandez

	1	2
	3.13	1.33
	2.22	1.56	Watch
	3.1	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.22)	1.41 ↓ (1.56)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Covato
33.3%

Bruno Fernandez
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Covato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Covato's form might have worsened.

Bruno Fernandez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bruno Fernandez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Covato than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Covato, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bruno Fernandez than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bruno Fernandez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matteo Covato - Bruno Fernandez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Covato is ranked ATP: 927. Fernandez is ranked ATP: 1134.

Covato has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fernandez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fernandez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fernandez might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Covato
ITF Tournaments
15.10.25	Nicolas Garcia Longo - Matteo Covato	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
05.10.25	Mariano Kestelboim - Matteo Covato	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
23.09.25	Matteo Covato - Sydney Zick	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.09.25	Egor Gerasimov - Matteo Covato	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Olaf Pieczkowski - Matteo Covato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Bruno Fernandez
ITF Tournaments
24.09.25	Salvador Price - Bruno Fernandez	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Felipe De Dios - Bruno Fernandez	2:1 ✺
09.09.25	Bruno Fernandez - Daniel Dutra da Silva	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Bruno Fernandez - Fernando Cavallo	Fernandez B. retired ✺
02.09.25	Bruno Fernandez - Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLL?W

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