Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham 4 - Qualification, grass - Semi-finals

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday


	Matteo Covato		Jesse Delaney

	1	2
			Watch
	3.10	1.30
	2.95	1.34
	3.19	1.35
	2.83	1.37	Watch
	3.10	1.33	Watch
	3.05	1.33	Watch
	3.00	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.54)	1.34 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Covato
30.6%

Jesse Delaney
69.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

61%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Covato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Covato's form might have worsened.

Jesse Delaney has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jesse Delaney's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Covato than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Covato, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesse Delaney than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jesse Delaney, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matteo Covato - Jesse Delaney Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Covato is ranked ATP: 739. Delaney is ranked ATP: 955.

Covato is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Delaney's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Covato
ITF Tournaments
01.07.26	Matteo Covato - Justin Schlageter	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	Matteo Covato - Noah Karma	1:2 ✺
09.06.26	Jan Kumstat - Matteo Covato	2:0 ✺
03.06.26	Matteo Covato - Richard Antoni	0:2 ✺
20.05.26	Dylan Salton - Matteo Covato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Jesse Delaney
ATP Challenger
28.06.26	Jesse Delaney - Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
15.06.26	Tai Sach - Jesse Delaney	Delaney Je. Retired ✺
04.06.26	Jake Delaney - Jesse Delaney	2:0 ✺
03.06.26	Lachlan Vickery - Jesse Delaney	0:2 ✺
02.06.26	Abhishek Bastola - Jesse Delaney	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 L?LWW

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