Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: PAU (FRANCE), HARD (INDOOR) - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 23 February 2024, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports, beIN Sports Max


	Mattia Bellucci		Brandon Nakashima

	1	2
	4.33	1.2	Watch
	3.8	1.22	Watch
	4.2	1.2	Watch
	4.41	1.24
	4	1.22	Watch
	3.96	1.22	Watch
	3.85	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.12)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mattia Bellucci
23%

Brandon Nakashima
77%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

69.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mattia Bellucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mattia Bellucci's form might have worsened.

Brandon Nakashima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brandon Nakashima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mattia Bellucci, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brandon Nakashima than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brandon Nakashima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Mattia Bellucci - Brandon Nakashima Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Bellucci will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Nakashima will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakashima: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Both players are now playing unstable.

Nakashima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nakashima is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Challenger
22.02.24	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
20.02.24	Mattia Bellucci - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
14.02.24	Mattia Bellucci - Zsombor Piros	0:2 ✺
12.02.24	Lorenzo Giustino - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
06.02.24	Mattia Bellucci - Matteo Martineau	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWL
- Brandon Nakashima
ATP Challenger
21.02.24	James Kent Trotter - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
19.02.24	Joris De Loore - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
14.02.24	Brandon Nakashima - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
12.02.24	Brandon Nakashima - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
04.02.24	Jurij Rodionov - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLWL

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