Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Max Houkes		Aristotelis Thanos

	1	2
			Watch
	1.47	2.63
	1.40	2.69	Watch
			Watch
	1.44	2.66	Watch
	1.84	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.84)	2.46 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Max Houkes
61.5%

Aristotelis Thanos
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Max Houkes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Max Houkes's performance.

Aristotelis Thanos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aristotelis Thanos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Max Houkes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aristotelis Thanos than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aristotelis Thanos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Max Houkes - Aristotelis Thanos Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Houkes will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Thanos will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Houkes (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Houkes is ranked ATP: 294. Thanos is ranked ATP: 476.

Houkes is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Thanos has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Houkes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Max Houkes - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.14%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Aristotelis Thanos - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.86%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Max Houkes
ITF Tournaments
07.09.25	Max Houkes - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Max Houkes - Daniel Siniakov	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Max Houkes - Richard Antoni	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Max Houkes - Aaron James Williams	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Max Houkes - Jason Jeremy Hildebrandt	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWWW
- Aristotelis Thanos
ITF Tournaments
19.09.25	Aristotelis Thanos - Alec Deckers	1:2 ✺
18.09.25	Aristotelis Thanos - Georgii Kravchenko	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Aristotelis Thanos - Johannes Seeman	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
19.08.25	Aristotelis Thanos - Mats Rosenkranz	1:2 ✺
12.08.25	Dan Added - Aristotelis Thanos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWWLL

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