Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Lourinha, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 June 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lourinha 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Mert Alkaya		Matisse Bobichon

	1	2
			Watch
	1.26	3.40
	1.21	3.95
	1.25	4.01
	1.21	3.84	Watch
	1.22	3.6
	1.24	3.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.3)	3.74 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mert Alkaya
75.2%

Matisse Bobichon
24.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

72.7%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.4%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mert Alkaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Matisse Bobichon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matisse Bobichon than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Mert Alkaya - Matisse Bobichon Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Alkaya is ranked ATP: 331. Bobichon is ranked ATP: 715.

Alkaya is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bobichon's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alkaya may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alkaya is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Mert Alkaya - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 72.75%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Stuttgart
07.06.26	Mert Alkaya - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
06.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Mert Alkaya	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
01.06.26	Mert Alkaya - Arda Azkara	1:2 ✺
26.05.26	Mert Alkaya - Yusuke Takahashi	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Andrej Nedic - Mert Alkaya	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 L?LLL
- Matisse Bobichon
ITF Tournaments
28.05.26	Matisse Bobichon - Andre Megrabian	2:0 ✺
25.05.26	Matisse Bobichon - Raghav Jaisinghani	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Yanki Erel - Matisse Bobichon	2:0 ✺
18.05.26	Matisse Bobichon - Evgeny Philippov	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	Rodrigo Leal - Matisse Bobichon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLWL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
30.10.26	Mert Alkaya - Yu Hsiou Hsu	✺

Mert Alkaya - Matisse Bobichon