Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Brescia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 June 2026, Tuesday


	Mia Ristic		Deborah Chiesa

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.75	1.95
	1.63	2.36
	1.58	2.27	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.78	2.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.62)	2.17 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mia Ristic
56.7%

Deborah Chiesa
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mia Ristic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Deborah Chiesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mia Ristic than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deborah Chiesa than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Mia Ristic - Deborah Chiesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ristic is ranked WTA: 272. Chiesa is ranked WTA: 389.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Ristic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ristic is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Deborah Chiesa - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.21%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mia Ristic
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Mia Ristic - Verena Meliss	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.06.26	Mia Ristic - Elina Avanesyan	0:2 ✺
11.06.26	Ekaterina Kazionova - Mia Ristic	0:2 ✺
10.06.26	Mia Ristic - Tena Lukas	Lukas T. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
04.06.26	Lola Radivojevic - Mia Ristic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLW?L
- Deborah Chiesa
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Lucija Ciric Bagaric - Deborah Chiesa	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
11.06.26	Clara Burel - Deborah Chiesa	2:1 ✺
10.06.26	Liv Boulard - Deborah Chiesa	0:2 ✺
06.06.26	Federica Urgesi - Deborah Chiesa	2:0 ✺
05.06.26	Laura Pigossi - Deborah Chiesa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLW

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